* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 11/09/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 47 44 39 35 32 28 28 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 47 44 39 35 32 28 28 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 38 35 31 28 27 28 31 34 36 36 35 32 30 Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 40 47 49 54 62 61 53 41 29 28 10 26 19 22 21 18 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -3 -6 -7 -3 -4 -2 -6 -1 -7 -1 -1 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 217 224 232 230 231 242 240 249 268 277 297 19 356 347 334 335 327 SST (C) 25.7 25.5 25.0 24.8 24.8 24.4 23.7 22.6 22.1 22.1 22.0 21.8 22.3 21.8 21.1 19.1 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 111 110 106 105 105 101 97 90 85 83 84 84 88 86 85 81 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 98 95 94 94 90 86 80 74 72 73 74 78 78 77 76 75 200 MB T (C) -58.5 -58.1 -57.7 -57.7 -57.4 -57.1 -57.4 -57.9 -58.5 -58.6 -58.4 -58.0 -58.1 -58.6 -58.7 -59.2 -60.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 54 51 47 44 45 43 41 43 41 41 43 47 50 54 57 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 22 23 25 23 22 24 24 23 24 21 20 17 14 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 127 119 96 97 101 63 69 47 35 19 18 17 -4 -25 -35 -78 -94 200 MB DIV 63 75 85 89 66 26 42 36 45 32 11 -14 -10 -3 10 11 24 700-850 TADV -23 -20 -15 -21 -12 -16 -9 -23 -15 4 2 -4 2 3 10 25 9 LAND (KM) 2200 2251 2311 2280 2142 1935 1762 1603 1521 1506 1455 1332 1178 1020 930 635 317 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.6 30.8 32.1 33.1 33.6 33.4 32.8 32.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.4 41.1 39.7 38.3 36.8 34.3 31.9 29.4 27.9 27.4 26.9 25.8 24.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 11 13 11 5 2 4 6 9 11 16 24 32 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -14. -26. -35. -42. -44. -46. -46. -49. -51. -50. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. 21. 21. 19. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 9. 4. 0. -3. -7. -7. -13. -17. -22. -27. -34. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.8 42.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 11/09/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 11/09/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 11/09/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 42 45 47 44 39 35 32 28 28 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 42 39 34 30 27 23 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 33 28 24 21 17 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT