* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 11/09/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 47 49 49 43 36 34 27 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 47 49 49 43 36 34 27 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 44 44 42 36 31 28 27 27 29 31 32 32 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 39 45 47 54 64 56 53 41 33 29 27 29 29 26 38 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 -6 -5 -4 -5 -1 -7 0 -4 -2 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 215 217 224 230 228 241 245 249 263 275 290 319 321 315 311 311 290 SST (C) 25.3 25.6 25.5 25.1 24.7 24.7 24.0 23.3 22.3 22.0 21.8 21.7 21.7 21.4 20.6 19.7 18.3 POT. INT. (KT) 107 110 110 107 104 104 99 94 88 85 84 84 85 84 80 79 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 98 98 95 93 93 88 84 78 75 74 74 76 75 72 72 73 200 MB T (C) -59.3 -58.5 -57.9 -57.5 -57.5 -57.2 -57.4 -57.4 -58.2 -58.7 -58.6 -58.2 -58.2 -58.7 -59.6 -59.9 -60.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 55 52 50 48 44 44 44 40 41 39 43 47 51 48 48 45 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 22 23 25 22 21 24 22 21 21 20 19 17 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 104 121 120 105 94 69 57 67 52 34 25 1 -11 6 -29 -56 -142 200 MB DIV 71 54 77 80 76 31 41 17 45 47 39 -13 0 4 -14 -13 22 700-850 TADV -10 -18 -23 -15 -17 -9 -12 -15 -23 -10 -1 -6 6 5 11 20 41 LAND (KM) 2140 2172 2233 2302 2296 2025 1846 1658 1508 1425 1338 1230 1080 955 835 730 615 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.1 30.0 31.2 32.3 33.0 33.3 33.5 33.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.8 42.6 41.3 39.9 38.5 35.5 33.1 30.5 28.2 26.8 25.5 24.1 22.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 9 6 6 7 10 9 8 12 21 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -13. -26. -37. -45. -50. -53. -55. -59. -61. -63. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 15. 17. 18. 20. 22. 22. 20. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 0. -2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11. -15. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 8. 1. -1. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -28. -35. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.9 43.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 11/09/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 11/09/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 11/09/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 44 47 49 49 43 36 34 27 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 38 41 43 43 37 30 28 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 36 30 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT