* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 11/09/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 44 46 49 45 36 32 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 44 46 49 45 36 32 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 38 38 33 28 25 22 21 21 22 23 23 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 34 43 49 50 64 66 58 48 39 36 29 35 35 29 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -5 -4 -6 -10 -5 -5 0 -3 0 0 -4 3 -4 3 SHEAR DIR 230 216 220 227 232 233 243 242 256 268 293 313 321 321 336 319 325 SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.9 25.5 25.2 24.9 24.7 23.9 23.3 22.5 22.0 22.3 21.9 21.7 21.6 20.4 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 109 110 113 110 108 105 103 97 94 88 86 88 87 86 86 81 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 97 100 98 96 94 91 86 83 78 76 78 79 78 77 74 72 200 MB T (C) -59.6 -59.2 -58.5 -58.0 -57.6 -57.2 -56.9 -57.4 -57.6 -58.1 -58.4 -58.3 -58.3 -58.7 -59.8 -60.1 -60.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.9 -0.1 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 55 56 55 54 51 46 44 39 36 37 36 42 49 49 47 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 22 21 23 22 20 22 22 18 18 19 18 17 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 77 102 114 106 95 82 63 62 52 42 18 8 -7 -9 -17 -41 -82 200 MB DIV 79 74 60 68 57 70 32 28 43 12 63 8 -3 -30 -17 0 -43 700-850 TADV -4 -11 -17 -17 -16 -16 -19 -16 -21 -27 -18 -18 -9 6 0 11 2 LAND (KM) 2137 2161 2213 2268 2327 2148 1953 1801 1654 1517 1373 1213 1017 837 632 366 126 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.6 30.7 31.7 32.5 32.8 33.0 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.9 43.8 42.6 41.2 39.8 36.9 34.5 32.4 30.2 28.2 26.3 24.2 21.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 12 10 11 10 8 8 10 13 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -9. -24. -38. -48. -56. -60. -64. -69. -73. -72. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 22. 22. 21. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. -0. 2. 1. -5. -6. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 16. 19. 15. 6. 2. -4. -14. -18. -20. -25. -30. -33. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.6 44.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 11/09/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 11/09/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 11/09/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 40 44 46 49 45 36 32 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 34 38 40 43 39 30 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 32 35 31 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT