* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 11/09/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 44 48 47 36 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 44 48 47 36 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 30 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 27 38 45 56 59 71 66 65 54 48 39 35 33 41 32 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -4 -5 -4 -4 -9 -8 -7 -7 -6 -1 0 0 1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 228 229 219 224 227 231 240 243 246 257 269 280 294 296 306 323 330 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.7 26.1 25.7 25.0 24.9 24.0 22.9 22.0 21.4 20.6 19.4 18.8 15.6 16.5 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 109 110 111 116 113 107 106 99 93 88 85 82 79 79 74 74 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 96 99 104 102 97 96 89 84 80 77 74 72 73 71 70 95 200 MB T (C) -59.8 -59.4 -58.9 -58.1 -57.7 -57.3 -56.9 -57.3 -57.3 -58.6 -58.8 -58.5 -58.1 -58.4 -59.3 -60.7 -61.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 54 55 54 56 52 52 47 43 44 51 55 60 68 63 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 18 20 22 22 23 19 17 19 22 20 19 17 17 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 62 84 99 97 93 87 79 74 58 42 54 47 39 14 23 -44 -91 200 MB DIV 62 72 78 61 74 81 25 32 17 42 31 29 18 32 10 -4 -17 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -8 -16 -7 -17 -18 -21 -22 -23 -20 4 9 25 57 27 7 LAND (KM) 2142 2170 2215 2279 2358 2244 1949 1761 1589 1384 1225 1073 784 441 26 -204 1 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.9 28.8 30.4 31.8 33.0 34.4 35.8 37.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.3 45.6 44.4 43.1 41.5 38.2 34.8 32.1 29.4 26.3 23.4 20.8 17.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 11 13 14 15 15 13 15 14 13 13 14 19 25 20 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. 14. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. -7. -24. -40. -55. -67. -73. -78. -83. -89. -91. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 19. 21. 24. 24. 24. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 4. 0. 3. 6. 2. 0. -3. -4. -7. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 22. 11. -1. -6. -11. -19. -23. -29. -35. -42. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.2 46.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 11/09/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 11/09/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 11/09/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 34 40 44 48 47 36 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 29 35 39 43 42 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 31 35 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 23 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT