* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 11/08/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 41 46 52 55 47 33 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 41 46 52 55 47 33 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 30 31 34 34 28 21 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 27 23 33 46 59 68 74 67 56 45 37 26 14 11 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -2 -3 -5 -8 -12 -6 -8 -1 -3 -6 -1 -4 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 226 226 229 218 223 228 231 243 242 259 265 279 283 318 296 331 1 SST (C) 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.5 26.0 25.5 25.1 24.3 23.5 22.4 21.9 21.3 20.9 20.6 20.3 20.4 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 110 109 109 109 115 111 108 102 96 90 86 82 80 80 79 78 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 94 95 97 102 100 99 93 86 81 76 73 71 72 71 70 70 200 MB T (C) -60.5 -59.8 -59.4 -58.8 -58.2 -57.3 -56.8 -56.9 -57.3 -57.5 -58.3 -58.8 -58.2 -58.4 -58.7 -59.1 -59.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 -0.6 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 55 53 54 54 54 51 51 52 51 50 49 51 52 55 51 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 13 15 17 19 20 23 21 17 16 19 19 20 21 20 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 40 61 79 97 106 82 75 75 63 50 41 34 53 65 56 8 -47 200 MB DIV 59 60 65 63 66 87 59 24 30 43 43 73 15 2 -12 -30 -16 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 -8 -13 -8 -14 -24 -12 -17 -16 1 7 5 9 5 4 LAND (KM) 2093 2096 2130 2173 2237 2380 2121 1841 1636 1484 1357 1280 1219 1069 870 716 587 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 28.3 29.5 31.1 32.7 33.9 34.8 35.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.0 46.4 45.5 44.4 43.1 40.2 36.8 33.3 30.3 27.7 25.4 23.8 22.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 11 12 14 16 16 14 13 9 7 6 8 9 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. 14. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. -5. -21. -37. -52. -63. -69. -72. -75. -75. -73. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 13. 15. 16. 19. 21. 24. 24. 23. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 10. 5. 3. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 21. 27. 30. 22. 8. -2. -7. -11. -9. -9. -10. -12. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.5 47.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 11/08/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 11/08/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 11/08/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 35 41 46 52 55 47 33 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 30 36 41 47 50 42 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 32 38 41 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 26 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT