* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 09/14/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 30 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 30 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 31 29 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 23 22 28 35 52 50 22 11 18 24 22 34 44 52 43 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 5 4 -8 -17 0 7 7 7 4 3 -2 -2 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 260 265 269 265 265 264 276 285 294 252 268 265 278 270 276 274 286 SST (C) 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.4 25.1 25.2 25.0 24.8 23.8 22.4 21.9 19.0 21.3 28.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 113 114 113 109 105 105 106 106 99 90 88 79 88 145 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 102 103 104 104 99 94 92 95 99 92 83 82 75 81 132 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -53.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -54.0 -54.4 -54.7 -55.3 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 2 2 3 2 7 2 7 3 6 4 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 60 58 53 50 45 45 41 35 35 35 40 46 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 15 13 10 8 6 5 4 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 8 9 11 6 5 -15 -53 -78 -71 -49 -28 -14 -41 -46 -53 -62 200 MB DIV 60 65 65 73 39 -41 -3 25 -19 -4 -19 -11 -5 8 19 8 -4 700-850 TADV 1 6 5 11 23 34 24 7 -26 -73 -77 -32 -1 -8 40 10 58 LAND (KM) 1201 1216 1212 1200 1203 1200 1226 1225 1097 779 390 128 72 -153 -188 -54 -7 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.2 21.1 23.5 25.6 27.0 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.7 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.7 26.0 22.5 18.2 14.5 11.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 9 11 12 9 6 12 18 18 15 16 20 21 23 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -7. -13. -17. -20. -24. -26. -29. -34. -42. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -2. -5. -10. -15. -17. -20. -21. -25. -25. -25. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 2. -0. -4. -9. -16. -18. -24. -27. -30. -32. -36. -40. -40. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.2 28.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 09/14/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.12 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.41 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 7.9% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 09/14/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 32 30 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT