* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 09/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 35 31 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 35 31 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 32 28 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 24 23 29 41 60 45 20 8 23 30 41 42 53 49 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 2 -1 -15 -8 -1 5 -1 0 -4 -4 -5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 261 268 283 283 280 270 268 288 289 245 224 221 237 238 239 254 261 SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.4 25.5 25.4 25.5 25.0 24.8 24.3 23.4 22.8 22.1 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 118 114 113 114 109 109 107 109 106 105 101 95 93 91 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 106 103 102 105 99 98 93 96 95 96 91 86 85 84 82 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -54.3 -53.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -55.0 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 3 2 3 2 2 3 3 6 5 700-500 MB RH 66 66 64 64 61 58 53 50 48 47 42 40 35 35 36 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 15 12 9 8 6 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 1 2 2 14 0 5 -35 -52 -78 -111 -117 -74 -31 -21 -42 -76 200 MB DIV 61 70 82 79 90 17 -23 7 -8 -11 6 2 6 9 9 5 4 700-850 TADV -3 0 3 2 2 22 30 30 6 -19 -50 -55 -47 -20 -15 0 14 LAND (KM) 1228 1310 1361 1375 1353 1308 1298 1339 1378 1298 1083 790 511 302 166 161 -24 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.1 20.8 23.0 25.1 26.7 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.7 29.4 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.5 28.3 26.0 22.9 19.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 5 6 11 11 10 6 9 12 14 13 13 15 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 2 6 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. 16. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -6. -16. -21. -24. -26. -29. -33. -38. -45. -50. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. -21. -21. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -4. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -29. -32. -35. -37. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 28.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 09/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.21 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.43 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 12.4% 9.2% 6.7% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.5% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.0% 3.7% 2.5% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 09/14/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 35 35 31 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 32 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT