* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 09/13/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 30 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 30 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 24 25 25 25 43 62 34 13 5 21 29 38 34 43 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 0 7 0 -19 -2 1 7 2 1 -2 0 1 6 SHEAR DIR 267 261 263 272 288 276 269 258 289 327 114 206 219 229 242 259 272 SST (C) 26.8 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.2 26.2 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.6 25.2 25.0 24.6 23.7 22.9 22.0 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 122 116 116 116 114 115 110 108 106 108 106 106 104 97 92 89 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 109 107 106 104 105 102 98 94 92 92 95 96 88 84 82 77 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -54.6 -53.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 4 3 6 700-500 MB RH 69 65 65 66 65 63 56 57 52 45 44 39 33 26 27 31 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 14 17 16 14 10 9 8 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -10 0 -2 2 10 -12 2 -38 -55 -82 -112 -69 -15 20 -2 -22 200 MB DIV 25 43 61 70 90 98 6 -11 5 -6 -18 10 -10 -12 -2 -8 3 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -4 1 5 9 41 28 19 0 -24 -55 -64 -59 -23 -8 -26 LAND (KM) 1029 1134 1227 1300 1334 1285 1233 1213 1271 1313 1253 1029 706 386 168 62 -117 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.6 20.0 22.3 24.8 26.8 28.0 28.6 28.5 27.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.9 27.8 28.6 29.2 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.2 24.7 21.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 6 9 13 11 9 5 8 13 16 13 13 16 20 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 1 3 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 18. 21. 21. 22. 21. 21. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -10. -18. -22. -23. -25. -27. -32. -36. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 1. -1. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 5. 3. -3. -8. -11. -12. -15. -18. -21. -22. -23. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.8 26.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 09/13/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.50 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 12.9% 9.6% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 2.9% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.3% 4.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 09/13/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 31 30 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 29 28 26 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 24 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT