* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 09/13/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 30 30 27 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 30 30 27 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 23 25 26 29 28 41 48 15 16 17 12 20 34 28 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -4 4 2 8 5 3 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 285 260 259 261 260 271 273 256 247 290 65 104 172 183 214 226 213 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.2 24.5 25.1 24.9 24.8 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.7 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 130 126 122 117 116 108 102 106 101 100 102 102 102 102 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 124 123 116 111 106 106 100 93 94 87 85 88 89 90 91 95 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.5 -54.3 -53.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 69 67 67 62 56 49 48 44 43 42 42 35 30 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 12 13 16 14 13 10 8 6 5 5 4 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 0 1 4 0 0 0 -5 -11 -39 -70 -95 -87 -78 -56 -30 -12 200 MB DIV -7 11 21 42 75 110 101 39 0 -18 11 42 -3 -5 -1 -14 -13 700-850 TADV -6 0 -2 -6 -4 7 4 41 26 15 0 -34 -30 -37 -66 -45 -39 LAND (KM) 785 892 1008 1101 1174 1244 1208 1144 1127 1233 1306 1294 1205 1097 933 760 605 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.9 20.4 22.8 25.5 27.6 29.0 29.3 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.7 25.6 26.6 27.4 28.0 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.3 26.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 8 7 6 10 14 12 10 4 2 5 7 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 8 5 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. 22. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -5. -13. -19. -21. -22. -22. -24. -27. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 5. 2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -15. -18. -21. -21. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.1 24.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 09/13/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.59 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 12.5% 9.1% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 4.3% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.6% 4.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 09/13/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 26 30 30 27 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 29 29 26 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 26 26 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT