* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 09/12/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 28 29 30 32 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 28 29 30 32 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 26 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 19 24 23 30 31 39 56 60 37 8 17 31 39 39 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -10 -9 -2 6 1 -1 0 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 311 276 268 273 268 271 275 280 266 264 262 285 199 196 196 191 188 SST (C) 27.2 27.5 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.3 24.7 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 131 135 130 127 122 118 115 108 103 99 98 96 98 99 102 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 127 129 123 118 111 107 106 99 92 87 85 82 84 86 89 92 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 68 70 69 70 69 66 64 65 58 56 51 46 45 47 43 40 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 13 14 13 15 12 10 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 31 13 14 25 33 15 -5 3 -19 -47 -80 -72 -69 -53 -50 -47 200 MB DIV 0 3 11 25 65 109 113 76 32 -8 0 -21 26 -19 3 -7 29 700-850 TADV -12 -6 -1 -7 -10 4 9 19 23 18 3 0 -12 -7 -12 2 -2 LAND (KM) 715 854 990 1103 1214 1354 1373 1268 1122 1061 1062 1112 1127 1144 1189 1276 1395 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.6 18.2 19.1 20.6 22.6 24.6 26.0 26.7 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.1 25.3 26.5 27.5 28.5 29.7 30.0 29.2 27.8 26.9 26.4 26.6 26.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 9 5 6 11 12 10 5 3 0 2 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 9 7 7 9 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 23. 22. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -13. -26. -34. -34. -34. -37. -41. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -23. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 3. -2. -14. -22. -24. -24. -27. -30. -31. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 24.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 09/12/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 17.4% 12.7% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% Logistic: 9.7% 11.7% 11.1% 3.7% 0.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 9.7% 8.1% 4.5% 0.3% 0.5% 2.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 09/12/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 28 29 30 32 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 26 27 28 30 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 23 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT