* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 09/12/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 29 31 32 34 36 37 36 30 23 20 21 18 19 21 25 V (KT) LAND 25 28 29 31 32 34 36 37 36 30 23 20 21 18 19 21 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 34 33 30 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 8 13 17 25 27 31 48 68 52 29 7 18 12 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -17 -5 -1 9 0 4 3 0 SHEAR DIR 26 349 291 263 251 261 257 275 264 261 262 262 220 253 248 251 275 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.3 26.8 26.2 25.5 24.7 24.6 25.1 25.0 24.9 24.6 24.9 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 130 133 135 127 120 115 110 104 101 104 101 102 102 105 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 125 127 129 117 110 106 102 94 90 90 85 89 91 97 104 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 71 73 72 69 66 61 57 53 47 47 46 46 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 52 36 22 16 14 32 13 -20 -37 -62 -77 -118 -128 -101 -54 -14 200 MB DIV 22 13 1 11 28 68 123 97 80 34 -8 24 11 -34 -16 0 -11 700-850 TADV -13 -13 -5 3 0 -3 7 10 35 46 11 9 -7 -26 -43 -49 -34 LAND (KM) 539 655 777 892 996 1194 1303 1273 1201 1120 1153 1234 1271 1204 1107 1021 1048 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.6 18.6 20.1 22.2 24.6 26.6 27.8 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.5 23.6 24.7 25.7 26.6 28.3 29.2 29.2 28.6 27.5 27.1 27.4 27.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 8 6 9 12 12 8 5 2 6 10 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 10 11 11 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 24. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -0. -7. -19. -29. -33. -33. -34. -34. -34. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 5. -2. -5. -4. -7. -6. -4. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 22.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 09/12/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 17.4% 12.6% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 19.3% 12.0% 2.9% 1.1% 3.4% 1.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.2% 3.9% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 13.5% 8.7% 4.1% 0.4% 1.2% 3.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 09/12/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 29 31 32 34 36 37 36 30 23 20 21 18 19 21 25 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 30 32 33 32 26 19 16 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 26 28 29 28 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 20 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT