* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 08/20/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 48 55 64 68 70 72 74 74 70 69 65 62 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 48 55 44 40 43 44 47 46 43 33 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 37 43 50 41 37 40 45 50 52 52 38 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 9 6 4 8 7 12 12 13 11 20 24 30 30 35 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 0 -2 0 3 3 -1 1 -1 5 -2 2 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 169 116 126 166 158 127 205 213 259 202 231 194 205 209 221 223 235 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.6 30.1 30.5 30.2 30.3 29.9 29.8 30.4 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.8 30.8 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 163 172 172 171 171 167 166 171 171 171 171 170 170 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 160 162 171 172 166 164 155 153 163 167 162 157 152 157 157 155 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -51.7 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.1 -51.0 -50.4 -50.2 -49.8 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 10 9 11 9 11 8 10 8 12 9 700-500 MB RH 64 65 69 69 72 75 69 67 64 59 59 58 56 53 51 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 11 11 7 7 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 35 47 45 39 41 57 47 52 37 33 21 20 -12 -9 -33 -30 -27 200 MB DIV 80 108 129 131 100 129 82 68 35 57 36 43 -1 -3 -4 -15 -17 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -2 0 3 -1 2 5 6 7 8 6 0 2 1 -3 LAND (KM) 341 296 150 99 66 188 56 -70 33 230 422 380 225 55 -95 -242 -393 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 13 12 11 9 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 53 45 39 47 53 79 74 39 42 63 92 48 67 38 23 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 7. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 36. 40. 42. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. 0. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -8. -9. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 18. 25. 34. 38. 40. 42. 44. 44. 40. 39. 35. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 79.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 08/20/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.96 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.65 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 50% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 25.5% 15.1% 11.0% 10.1% 13.4% 23.7% 49.7% Logistic: 8.7% 41.0% 23.0% 16.7% 7.2% 37.0% 38.6% 45.3% Bayesian: 7.2% 8.0% 7.9% 1.3% 0.1% 15.3% 9.0% 18.7% Consensus: 7.2% 24.8% 15.4% 9.7% 5.8% 21.9% 23.8% 37.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 08/20/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 08/20/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 40 48 55 44 40 43 44 47 46 43 33 29 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 45 52 41 37 40 41 44 43 40 30 26 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 39 46 35 31 34 35 38 37 34 24 20 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 38 27 23 26 27 30 29 26 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT