* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 08/20/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 45 54 61 63 66 67 68 66 65 64 64 64 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 45 54 61 43 46 46 48 45 45 43 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 40 47 53 40 41 44 47 49 49 50 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 8 10 5 5 6 10 16 9 22 12 25 27 31 30 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -6 -4 -2 -4 2 -1 0 -3 -3 2 0 -1 -3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 203 156 107 125 148 109 218 210 249 244 231 204 202 209 227 215 226 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 30.2 29.9 30.5 29.1 30.1 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.9 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 158 160 163 172 167 171 153 171 171 171 170 171 171 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 157 158 160 162 170 159 168 141 158 168 165 163 162 163 160 160 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.0 -50.6 -50.2 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 9 8 10 9 10 11 10 9 10 9 11 9 700-500 MB RH 65 66 69 70 70 72 72 66 66 63 58 62 61 62 57 61 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 33 43 46 45 59 55 27 36 36 21 34 21 43 19 19 44 200 MB DIV 47 74 104 116 128 99 108 49 52 46 14 53 26 21 6 18 24 700-850 TADV -1 2 1 1 0 0 3 3 5 0 10 3 18 6 15 7 -6 LAND (KM) 360 360 366 226 109 94 172 53 -72 114 342 432 353 184 22 -141 -260 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 10 9 8 9 10 10 8 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 112 61 49 40 39 59 94 67 29 39 74 74 52 73 45 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 40. 42. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 4. 1. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 24. 31. 33. 36. 37. 38. 36. 35. 34. 34. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 76.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 08/20/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.91 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.57 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 56% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 19.5% 13.4% 9.2% 8.4% 12.0% 24.9% 55.9% Logistic: 3.3% 16.0% 7.5% 2.4% 0.6% 6.1% 16.6% 31.5% Bayesian: 1.7% 2.3% 2.5% 0.4% 0.3% 7.5% 6.0% 4.6% Consensus: 3.5% 12.6% 7.8% 4.0% 3.1% 8.5% 15.9% 30.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 08/20/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 08/20/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 37 45 54 61 43 46 46 48 45 45 43 32 28 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 43 52 59 41 44 44 46 43 43 41 30 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 39 48 55 37 40 40 42 39 39 37 26 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 40 47 29 32 32 34 31 31 29 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT