* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 08/20/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 48 58 65 69 69 68 70 69 70 66 65 64 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 48 58 65 60 52 50 52 51 53 48 36 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 40 48 56 63 48 52 56 60 61 60 43 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 4 7 11 1 5 5 12 13 16 15 26 22 29 26 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -5 -5 -2 0 5 1 -3 0 -1 1 -1 1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 194 213 212 119 133 195 163 214 206 253 208 225 199 207 204 229 250 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.4 30.2 30.0 30.2 29.9 29.5 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.4 31.0 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 157 161 160 172 169 171 168 160 171 171 171 171 171 171 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 159 157 161 160 171 161 163 157 146 166 168 165 162 156 168 168 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -50.8 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 10 9 10 10 11 9 11 9 12 700-500 MB RH 59 63 64 67 69 69 72 68 64 64 63 62 64 64 63 58 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 6 6 5 7 6 7 6 4 6 5 6 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 25 36 48 50 42 54 35 42 29 31 40 25 5 1 -34 -27 200 MB DIV 38 49 76 114 128 95 108 61 50 39 59 16 29 15 -3 -1 -19 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 2 -2 4 -1 2 6 2 0 12 0 10 3 5 LAND (KM) 372 343 324 372 205 93 200 140 -10 49 213 387 392 236 93 -111 -339 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 14 11 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 93 122 70 53 38 49 102 96 42 35 61 83 53 63 36 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 40. 42. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 9. 7. 4. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -8. -10. -9. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 28. 35. 39. 39. 38. 40. 39. 40. 36. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 74.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 08/20/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.50 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.91 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 58% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 37.0% 21.2% 12.1% 11.6% 16.8% 34.6% 58.2% Logistic: 7.8% 36.8% 24.1% 13.7% 4.5% 20.9% 27.5% 47.7% Bayesian: 1.7% 7.2% 7.5% 1.3% 0.7% 14.0% 14.0% 13.9% Consensus: 6.1% 27.0% 17.6% 9.0% 5.6% 17.2% 25.4% 39.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 08/20/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 08/20/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 40 48 58 65 60 52 50 52 51 53 48 36 30 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 45 55 62 57 49 47 49 48 50 45 33 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 40 50 57 52 44 42 44 43 45 40 28 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 41 48 43 35 33 35 34 36 31 19 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT