* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 08/19/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 38 45 53 61 63 63 63 63 64 64 63 64 63 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 38 45 53 61 55 38 42 41 43 43 42 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 39 43 48 51 34 37 37 39 40 41 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 10 5 6 3 7 5 12 16 22 13 25 18 32 32 33 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 6 1 3 -4 0 0 1 -3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 272 177 202 242 157 197 185 234 227 244 230 225 198 219 211 231 229 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.0 29.0 30.3 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.9 31.1 32.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 159 157 160 167 172 171 169 151 171 171 172 171 170 169 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 160 159 157 160 167 169 166 155 137 161 168 170 165 162 161 170 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 12 700-500 MB RH 57 59 62 64 66 68 70 67 65 64 63 59 59 56 56 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 17 29 42 47 38 36 31 20 51 44 35 33 -2 -14 -46 -51 200 MB DIV 30 35 51 72 92 116 114 89 48 48 44 18 42 15 24 -14 -7 700-850 TADV 2 0 -3 -2 -2 0 0 0 2 7 0 9 2 12 8 9 4 LAND (KM) 256 364 366 333 356 149 190 126 -9 -32 146 329 453 247 69 -79 -182 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.1 16.1 17.6 19.0 20.3 21.2 22.5 23.9 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.4 74.9 76.4 78.0 79.5 82.4 84.8 86.3 87.4 88.4 89.8 91.0 92.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 12 9 7 7 9 10 11 9 8 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 64 93 113 74 55 47 94 94 44 30 46 77 63 70 48 28 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 40. 42. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -3. -6. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 23. 31. 33. 33. 33. 33. 34. 34. 33. 34. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 73.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 08/19/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 79.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.53 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.90 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 26.2% 15.6% 11.5% 11.0% 13.1% 26.7% 53.7% Logistic: 8.9% 33.8% 21.3% 12.4% 5.4% 26.5% 40.9% 49.9% Bayesian: 2.9% 23.8% 12.1% 1.3% 1.0% 14.2% 38.3% 17.7% Consensus: 6.4% 27.9% 16.3% 8.4% 5.8% 17.9% 35.3% 40.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 08/19/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 08/19/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 38 45 53 61 55 38 42 41 43 43 42 34 29 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 42 50 58 52 35 39 38 40 40 39 31 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 38 46 54 48 31 35 34 36 36 35 27 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 38 46 40 23 27 26 28 28 27 19 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT