* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 08/19/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 49 62 66 71 68 69 72 73 72 75 76 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 49 62 58 39 35 36 38 40 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 36 39 47 55 35 30 35 38 42 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 2 12 10 9 9 4 6 6 13 10 14 7 7 11 18 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -3 -4 -3 -6 0 2 1 0 -3 0 2 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 299 239 171 189 191 157 122 167 225 208 263 198 216 166 143 161 161 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.4 30.1 29.9 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.3 28.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 158 157 160 173 168 171 170 171 169 172 168 157 149 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 157 158 158 157 160 173 162 171 167 168 158 162 159 147 139 132 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 -51.7 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.3 -51.5 -50.9 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 11 10 8 9 8 10 7 9 8 11 8 13 9 15 9 700-500 MB RH 60 58 59 62 65 69 70 75 72 72 72 69 69 69 69 68 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 8 8 10 8 7 8 6 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 17 26 33 42 51 48 48 44 68 74 72 71 57 57 23 61 200 MB DIV 14 21 44 65 86 107 105 128 71 66 45 33 29 39 29 31 27 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 -3 0 0 -1 4 -4 0 -3 4 -4 5 -2 5 0 LAND (KM) 145 256 340 389 372 236 70 187 -2 -146 13 200 219 35 -161 -371 -166 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 15.1 16.3 17.5 18.5 19.3 19.8 20.4 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.8 73.4 74.8 76.2 77.8 81.0 83.8 85.9 87.6 89.1 90.7 92.5 94.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 15 16 15 13 10 9 7 9 9 11 12 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 74 64 77 101 75 40 48 80 61 6 45 52 67 36 28 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 36. 40. 42. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -2. -3. -1. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 19. 32. 36. 41. 38. 39. 42. 43. 42. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 71.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 08/19/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 78.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.52 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.89 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 18.2% 12.8% 9.4% 8.7% 11.3% 13.9% 54.6% Logistic: 4.6% 20.0% 11.7% 7.4% 2.9% 13.1% 21.9% 50.6% Bayesian: 1.4% 5.4% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 4.4% 4.3% 36.2% Consensus: 3.7% 14.5% 8.8% 5.6% 3.9% 9.6% 13.4% 47.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 08/19/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 08/19/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 33 35 40 49 62 58 39 35 36 38 40 31 28 27 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 39 48 61 57 38 34 35 37 39 30 27 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 44 57 53 34 30 31 33 35 26 23 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 36 49 45 26 22 23 25 27 18 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT