* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 08/19/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 42 48 57 65 67 65 63 62 64 62 60 58 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 42 48 57 65 56 38 41 40 41 39 38 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 38 44 50 49 35 38 39 39 40 41 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 2 11 10 6 6 5 13 13 21 13 22 22 25 27 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -4 -5 2 -1 3 -2 0 2 1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 259 294 231 171 191 186 177 156 213 218 242 239 233 218 217 218 231 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.7 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 28.8 30.1 30.5 30.5 30.5 29.9 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 149 157 159 159 165 166 166 162 148 171 171 171 171 167 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 154 149 157 159 159 165 162 157 150 136 158 164 161 158 148 155 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -50.8 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 10 8 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 65 63 60 61 63 64 68 70 70 68 67 65 62 65 65 67 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 9 10 9 9 8 9 8 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 19 24 32 37 51 42 38 35 23 55 48 26 27 -4 -5 -49 200 MB DIV 48 29 26 48 70 95 126 96 103 55 66 50 17 34 30 28 2 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 0 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 4 -5 8 14 LAND (KM) 156 122 210 322 378 320 178 183 149 -26 -23 158 381 357 190 43 -142 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 12 10 9 9 10 10 9 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 61 73 48 65 110 59 49 78 92 39 30 49 90 56 52 33 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 39. 40. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -7. -8. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 27. 35. 37. 35. 33. 32. 34. 32. 30. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 70.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 08/19/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.47 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.86 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 56% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 25.6% 15.5% 11.3% 10.8% 12.9% 24.2% 56.0% Logistic: 3.3% 15.1% 8.1% 2.1% 0.7% 5.3% 12.9% 31.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 7.7% 3.1% 0.1% 0.2% 2.5% 9.3% 5.4% Consensus: 3.6% 16.1% 8.9% 4.5% 3.9% 6.9% 15.5% 30.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 08/19/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 08/19/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 42 48 57 65 56 38 41 40 41 39 38 30 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 40 46 55 63 54 36 39 38 39 37 36 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 36 42 51 59 50 32 35 34 35 33 32 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 34 43 51 42 24 27 26 27 25 24 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT