* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 08/19/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 42 49 57 65 68 69 69 70 73 75 78 75 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 42 49 57 65 68 50 34 36 39 41 36 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 38 43 50 57 46 33 35 39 44 40 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 2 13 7 10 6 8 5 9 9 12 4 9 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -1 -5 0 2 4 0 -2 0 2 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 260 249 283 222 165 188 141 156 162 196 202 267 199 248 164 100 104 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 31.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 153 150 155 156 158 167 168 169 170 171 169 170 172 156 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 152 153 150 155 156 158 166 161 159 157 171 157 159 163 146 147 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.5 -51.8 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -51.7 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 12 11 9 9 8 9 7 9 8 10 8 12 8 13 700-500 MB RH 62 64 61 59 61 65 68 69 76 73 73 73 69 71 74 77 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 4 850 MB ENV VOR 26 25 23 25 32 44 48 54 60 43 65 80 61 74 61 39 44 200 MB DIV 53 56 30 25 51 84 125 126 107 67 84 64 37 25 39 48 81 700-850 TADV -4 0 2 3 1 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -2 2 -4 10 -1 0 LAND (KM) 206 145 123 209 313 368 290 119 168 75 -72 -95 79 201 132 -53 -248 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.4 15.2 16.3 17.4 18.3 19.0 19.5 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.5 70.1 71.6 73.1 74.5 77.5 80.5 83.2 85.2 86.9 88.2 89.7 91.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 16 14 13 10 8 7 8 8 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 47 58 73 53 60 91 47 46 85 72 46 8 44 54 54 25 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 39. 41. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 19. 27. 35. 38. 39. 39. 40. 43. 45. 48. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 68.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 08/19/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.38 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 19.0% 13.3% 9.7% 8.9% 11.7% 14.3% 53.4% Logistic: 4.2% 22.4% 14.5% 6.8% 2.3% 8.8% 15.5% 41.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.2% 2.2% 0.1% 0.2% 2.2% 14.6% 40.6% Consensus: 3.4% 14.9% 10.0% 5.5% 3.8% 7.6% 14.8% 45.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 08/19/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 08/19/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 42 49 57 65 68 50 34 36 39 41 36 30 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 40 47 55 63 66 48 32 34 37 39 34 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 36 43 51 59 62 44 28 30 33 35 30 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 35 43 51 54 36 20 22 25 27 22 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT