* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 08/18/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 43 52 59 66 68 68 71 76 81 83 80 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 43 52 59 66 58 39 31 39 44 46 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 24 24 25 27 30 35 41 41 32 28 36 40 46 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 8 3 13 9 9 7 6 4 11 4 11 4 8 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -5 3 0 4 -3 -3 0 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 294 251 244 276 221 185 142 137 138 188 153 239 226 222 130 120 93 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.9 29.9 30.0 29.4 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 154 153 152 157 159 162 168 169 170 170 171 167 170 159 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 154 154 153 152 157 159 162 163 160 159 158 171 156 162 149 145 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 12 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 10 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 62 61 64 61 58 64 65 68 73 75 71 73 70 73 72 77 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 7 9 8 9 8 9 10 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 24 27 28 26 28 40 48 52 58 64 57 95 72 89 88 67 54 200 MB DIV 56 49 50 29 31 70 114 138 114 101 81 75 59 33 33 54 69 700-850 TADV -6 -5 0 2 2 0 0 -2 -1 -2 0 -4 0 -2 4 3 3 LAND (KM) 275 199 163 140 258 396 387 117 103 164 -15 -101 -8 122 158 4 -174 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.8 15.6 16.8 17.6 18.4 18.8 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.3 69.0 70.6 72.1 73.6 76.5 79.6 82.3 84.7 86.3 87.8 89.0 90.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 15 15 14 15 15 13 11 8 7 7 8 8 11 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 64 54 71 70 53 93 53 39 59 74 54 21 46 38 56 29 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 21. 26. 29. 33. 38. 42. 44. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. -4. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 18. 27. 34. 41. 43. 43. 46. 51. 56. 58. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 67.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 08/18/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.91 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 19.9% 14.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 18.0% 12.2% 6.1% 1.9% 11.4% 14.1% 38.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.2% 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 3.5% 3.8% 18.0% Consensus: 3.6% 13.4% 9.8% 5.5% 0.7% 5.0% 10.5% 18.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 08/18/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 08/18/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 29 34 43 52 59 66 58 39 31 39 44 46 32 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 33 42 51 58 65 57 38 30 38 43 45 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 29 38 47 54 61 53 34 26 34 39 41 27 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 31 40 47 54 46 27 19 27 32 34 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT