* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 08/18/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 43 51 61 68 75 80 82 86 89 93 95 97 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 43 51 61 57 55 60 62 66 42 32 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 35 39 45 44 44 53 63 72 46 33 44 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 7 8 2 12 9 10 11 11 9 10 9 8 11 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 -2 -1 -2 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 289 305 225 213 203 154 159 117 70 85 82 106 90 101 62 91 58 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.6 29.3 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 152 150 149 150 152 155 165 165 167 167 166 167 171 157 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 156 152 150 149 150 152 155 164 157 156 152 155 157 171 147 160 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -51.9 -52.4 -51.5 -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -50.8 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 9 9 10 8 9 7 9 6 8 6 10 7 12 7 700-500 MB RH 65 62 62 63 61 64 68 73 73 75 75 77 75 72 69 69 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 12 13 14 14 13 14 14 17 850 MB ENV VOR 29 33 40 43 40 45 52 52 74 88 78 88 104 109 139 140 128 200 MB DIV 54 75 67 69 37 75 108 122 125 169 89 52 73 81 63 73 85 700-850 TADV -4 -9 -5 0 2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 0 -1 4 1 13 5 LAND (KM) 299 265 180 126 81 256 420 237 -12 26 94 127 32 -117 -21 53 82 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.4 13.5 14.1 15.1 16.1 16.6 17.2 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.4 67.2 68.8 70.3 71.9 74.9 77.9 81.0 83.6 85.3 86.4 87.0 87.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 15 15 15 15 15 14 12 7 5 3 6 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 36 55 43 54 50 37 46 35 43 46 52 55 47 13 47 24 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 1. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 14. 21. 31. 38. 45. 50. 52. 56. 59. 63. 65. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 65.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 08/18/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 18.3% 12.7% 9.0% 8.3% 11.4% 13.6% 49.2% Logistic: 5.7% 24.5% 17.2% 10.3% 3.3% 13.5% 14.4% 43.5% Bayesian: 1.5% 6.1% 4.3% 0.2% 0.4% 4.7% 6.9% 42.6% Consensus: 3.9% 16.3% 11.4% 6.5% 4.0% 9.9% 11.6% 45.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 08/18/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 08/18/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 43 51 61 57 55 60 62 66 42 32 37 39 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 41 49 59 55 53 58 60 64 40 30 35 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 37 45 55 51 49 54 56 60 36 26 31 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 37 47 43 41 46 48 52 28 18 23 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT