* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 08/18/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 45 51 61 66 71 78 80 84 87 90 94 94 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 45 51 61 66 51 49 51 55 43 32 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 37 41 48 55 45 44 55 64 55 36 30 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 10 8 6 5 12 9 10 14 9 10 3 10 4 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 2 -1 -4 -5 -4 -5 -5 -3 -2 3 -3 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 291 288 298 235 221 96 159 140 92 84 70 86 124 76 93 82 95 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.7 31.1 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 152 150 149 142 150 150 151 157 156 160 161 163 171 162 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 159 152 150 149 142 150 150 151 152 147 147 148 153 171 154 153 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 9 11 9 9 8 9 7 8 7 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 62 64 61 66 69 74 73 75 74 76 73 75 70 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 13 13 15 14 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 30 35 39 33 44 42 65 83 81 79 103 101 130 150 138 200 MB DIV 38 55 71 79 73 48 86 131 139 160 135 87 59 62 79 52 64 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -8 -6 0 0 -2 -1 -4 1 -1 1 0 0 5 10 16 LAND (KM) 278 307 271 185 124 199 312 434 118 -43 23 115 64 -53 -101 0 69 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.4 15.4 16.0 16.8 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.6 65.5 67.1 68.7 70.2 73.3 76.2 79.2 82.1 84.4 86.0 86.9 87.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 17 16 15 15 14 15 15 13 10 7 4 4 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 41 37 41 38 57 31 46 42 27 40 38 46 48 40 6 28 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 794 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 3. 5. 2. 1. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 21. 31. 36. 41. 48. 50. 54. 57. 60. 64. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 63.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 08/18/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.87 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 22.2% 14.9% 10.8% 9.7% 12.8% 14.5% 48.5% Logistic: 2.8% 10.3% 7.0% 2.3% 0.3% 3.4% 5.0% 18.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.5% 5.5% 0.2% 0.2% 4.0% 5.9% 14.0% Consensus: 3.4% 11.7% 9.1% 4.4% 3.4% 6.7% 8.5% 26.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 08/18/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 08/18/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 38 45 51 61 66 51 49 51 55 43 32 33 32 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 43 49 59 64 49 47 49 53 41 30 31 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 38 44 54 59 44 42 44 48 36 25 26 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 36 46 51 36 34 36 40 28 17 18 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT