* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 08/17/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 29 34 41 49 58 62 70 75 79 83 86 87 90 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 29 34 41 49 58 62 70 75 79 63 39 35 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 34 39 48 59 71 62 38 36 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 13 10 10 4 6 10 6 5 4 6 11 5 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 1 -1 0 -1 0 0 -5 -4 -7 2 3 7 -2 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 317 289 283 294 297 262 293 177 111 148 124 153 179 229 255 223 180 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.6 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.6 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 161 159 155 149 147 155 155 155 157 163 168 170 170 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 159 161 159 155 149 147 155 155 154 153 153 154 159 161 170 160 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 9 7 10 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 63 62 63 62 68 70 73 73 77 73 73 72 70 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 9 10 11 12 12 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR 44 39 37 28 27 36 31 32 39 47 56 55 49 88 73 89 80 200 MB DIV 22 30 33 44 71 68 64 74 98 112 98 111 69 60 36 70 33 700-850 TADV -8 -1 0 -6 -7 -3 1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 8 LAND (KM) 285 261 267 277 279 144 148 344 353 193 123 202 70 -41 -144 33 239 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.8 15.8 16.9 17.8 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.5 61.5 63.1 64.7 66.3 69.3 72.6 75.7 78.8 81.6 84.1 85.8 86.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 18 16 16 15 16 16 15 15 14 11 8 6 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 56 45 42 37 36 42 47 68 54 39 47 71 76 53 5 51 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 41. 43. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 16. 24. 33. 37. 45. 50. 55. 58. 61. 62. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 59.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 08/17/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.95 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 17.9% 12.4% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 9.8% 7.7% 3.1% 0.6% 3.5% 7.1% 19.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 3.7% 0.1% 0.2% 1.4% 3.3% 14.1% Consensus: 3.3% 9.3% 7.9% 3.9% 0.3% 1.6% 7.7% 11.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 08/17/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 08/17/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 29 34 41 49 58 62 70 75 79 63 39 35 38 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 28 33 40 48 57 61 69 74 78 62 38 34 37 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 24 29 36 44 53 57 65 70 74 58 34 30 33 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 30 38 47 51 59 64 68 52 28 24 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT