* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 08/17/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 32 39 47 55 59 65 71 77 81 81 85 83 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 27 32 39 47 55 59 65 71 77 81 66 40 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 37 43 52 62 70 62 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 14 13 9 6 8 3 12 4 8 4 11 6 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 6 2 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 -2 4 3 2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 311 311 294 292 293 274 279 161 129 130 185 156 175 173 258 218 277 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.7 30.1 30.1 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 160 160 153 151 150 155 156 158 159 163 169 170 152 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 158 159 160 160 153 151 150 155 156 156 152 151 155 158 140 144 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.1 -52.5 -51.7 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 8 9 8 9 7 9 8 11 10 700-500 MB RH 61 60 62 64 63 63 63 67 70 71 71 76 74 69 68 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 7 8 7 8 10 12 12 10 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 45 48 47 42 33 32 31 32 33 42 46 52 36 59 65 59 53 200 MB DIV 13 28 29 39 51 70 55 47 63 117 102 119 89 44 30 31 15 700-850 TADV -14 -9 -2 0 -5 -6 0 3 1 1 -5 1 0 1 0 5 1 LAND (KM) 454 305 245 256 267 284 145 225 356 292 224 190 219 104 -31 -87 56 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.9 14.6 15.6 16.5 17.5 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.3 59.2 60.9 62.4 64.0 66.9 70.1 73.2 76.3 79.2 81.8 84.0 85.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 16 15 15 15 16 15 15 14 13 10 7 5 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 60 58 47 44 39 40 62 54 105 55 55 59 86 86 50 12 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 15. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 41. 43. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -5. -4. -3. -1. -2. -5. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 30. 34. 40. 46. 52. 56. 56. 60. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 57.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 08/17/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.33 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.95 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 17.3% 12.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 8.3% 6.2% 2.7% 0.6% 3.4% 6.5% 19.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.3% 2.6% 0.1% 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 12.3% Consensus: 3.6% 9.0% 6.9% 3.7% 0.3% 1.5% 6.6% 10.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 08/17/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 08/17/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 27 32 39 47 55 59 65 71 77 81 66 40 39 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 26 31 38 46 54 58 64 70 76 80 65 39 38 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 28 35 43 51 55 61 67 73 77 62 36 35 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 29 37 45 49 55 61 67 71 56 30 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT