* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 08/17/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 25 26 30 37 46 51 58 62 68 76 82 81 80 77 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 26 30 37 46 51 58 62 68 76 82 67 55 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 30 34 40 47 58 69 63 51 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 9 13 13 10 5 7 9 9 4 7 10 18 13 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 7 6 2 0 -2 0 -4 -4 -5 -3 -2 5 8 0 2 SHEAR DIR 318 308 310 295 292 314 285 338 193 110 151 131 174 199 233 233 246 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.7 30.1 29.3 29.2 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 159 158 159 152 154 157 155 157 158 164 170 156 154 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 156 157 159 158 159 152 154 157 155 156 155 157 158 142 139 157 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 9 9 10 8 10 9 9 8 9 8 10 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 60 61 61 63 64 64 65 62 67 69 69 71 73 70 66 65 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 7 10 12 12 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 41 42 48 43 37 22 31 27 23 28 28 42 36 23 40 36 39 200 MB DIV 29 28 38 50 57 57 64 33 39 58 69 74 95 95 38 26 3 700-850 TADV -18 -15 -9 -4 -2 -8 -2 3 5 1 2 -2 3 1 2 -2 7 LAND (KM) 672 489 336 243 240 275 248 188 325 246 256 254 289 113 -28 25 154 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.5 16.4 17.4 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.0 56.9 58.6 60.1 61.6 64.6 67.6 70.9 73.8 76.9 79.8 82.5 84.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 16 15 15 15 16 15 15 15 14 13 11 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 52 59 59 51 45 37 44 88 75 104 64 66 94 72 31 34 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 15. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 42. 44. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -3. -1. -3. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 21. 26. 33. 37. 43. 51. 57. 56. 55. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 55.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 08/17/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.93 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 18.6% 12.9% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 5.0% 3.7% 1.0% 0.1% 1.1% 2.6% 8.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% Consensus: 2.7% 7.9% 5.9% 3.3% 0.1% 0.4% 5.2% 3.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 08/17/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 08/17/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 25 26 30 37 46 51 58 62 68 76 82 67 55 52 18HR AGO 25 24 23 24 25 29 36 45 50 57 61 67 75 81 66 54 51 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 34 43 48 55 59 65 73 79 64 52 49 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 27 36 41 48 52 58 66 72 57 45 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT