* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 08/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 28 29 31 37 45 49 55 60 62 69 76 77 76 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 28 29 31 37 45 49 55 60 62 69 76 77 76 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 30 31 33 34 35 38 42 48 57 63 64 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 10 13 14 16 15 12 9 6 9 7 14 20 29 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 3 2 -1 -2 -4 -4 -2 -4 -6 -5 0 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 295 293 302 312 311 298 300 275 298 245 189 192 187 197 207 232 218 SST (C) 28.2 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.8 30.2 29.3 30.6 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 146 151 153 155 159 160 157 157 157 159 161 168 173 157 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 146 151 153 155 159 160 157 157 157 159 161 168 171 147 167 167 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 54 58 59 59 60 62 62 63 61 63 63 65 66 68 65 62 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 9 7 8 10 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 32 45 37 34 32 29 20 25 22 26 22 27 12 10 12 17 25 200 MB DIV 30 25 36 20 25 30 33 46 14 48 70 67 58 106 64 28 39 700-850 TADV -10 -12 -14 -10 -10 -3 -6 -3 2 2 1 1 5 6 5 15 0 LAND (KM) 823 767 742 628 484 257 300 356 284 291 221 167 346 202 21 196 394 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.5 15.1 15.9 16.9 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.6 52.3 54.0 55.5 57.0 60.0 63.0 65.9 69.1 72.2 75.6 79.1 82.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 15 14 15 15 16 17 18 16 14 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 32 46 54 59 52 43 46 72 77 149 65 118 93 27 41 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 42. 44. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 12. 20. 24. 30. 35. 37. 44. 51. 52. 51. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 50.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 08/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.87 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 21.0% 14.7% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 29.2% 27.4% 8.6% 1.9% 8.5% 4.6% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.4% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 1.4% 2.6% Consensus: 5.2% 16.9% 15.4% 6.3% 0.7% 3.1% 6.4% 3.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 08/16/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 08/16/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 28 29 31 37 45 49 55 60 62 69 76 77 76 74 18HR AGO 25 24 26 26 27 29 35 43 47 53 58 60 67 74 75 74 72 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 24 30 38 42 48 53 55 62 69 70 69 67 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 24 32 36 42 47 49 56 63 64 63 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT