* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 07/04/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 43 45 52 52 51 48 46 41 32 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 43 45 52 52 51 48 46 41 32 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 39 41 45 46 46 46 46 44 42 39 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 17 20 23 27 23 29 19 24 26 39 41 45 52 62 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -3 -1 -6 -2 -7 -1 -4 0 -2 2 0 0 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 310 263 261 262 255 254 250 274 269 274 266 270 262 264 252 257 267 SST (C) 25.7 25.4 25.4 25.5 24.6 24.5 24.3 24.3 23.2 19.3 17.6 15.5 15.2 16.7 17.7 17.6 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 113 110 110 112 105 106 104 103 96 80 76 72 72 75 76 74 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 98 98 100 96 97 95 92 85 73 70 69 69 70 70 69 70 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.2 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.7 -56.4 -57.0 -57.6 -57.3 -57.5 -57.5 -57.2 -56.6 -55.5 -54.4 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 700-500 MB RH 54 56 55 58 61 65 72 68 62 53 51 49 45 40 34 29 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 7 8 13 11 11 11 14 14 13 13 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 33 35 14 3 0 0 4 8 23 8 -16 -60 -71 -63 -53 -53 -30 200 MB DIV 17 26 5 17 38 30 37 14 33 23 22 9 -8 -16 -15 -14 -5 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 5 13 -11 3 6 16 13 9 13 10 -17 -41 -29 16 LAND (KM) 787 880 974 1079 1102 1075 1014 990 1110 1303 1531 1553 1161 743 307 -6 2 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.3 31.9 32.6 33.6 35.8 37.6 39.0 40.4 42.1 43.9 45.6 46.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.4 67.8 66.2 64.6 62.7 57.9 52.2 47.0 42.4 38.0 33.8 29.1 23.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 17 20 24 23 20 19 18 18 19 20 21 18 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 10. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 0. -4. -8. -12. -18. -25. -34. -42. -50. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. -1. 5. 3. 1. 1. 4. 3. 1. 0. -4. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 15. 22. 22. 21. 18. 16. 11. 2. -6. -18. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.9 69.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 07/04/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.37 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 10.6% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.1% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 07/04/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 07/04/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 37 43 45 52 52 51 48 46 41 32 24 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 40 42 49 49 48 45 43 38 29 21 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 36 38 45 45 44 41 39 34 25 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 30 37 37 36 33 31 26 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT