* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 07/04/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 42 46 50 56 51 44 39 32 25 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 37 42 46 50 56 51 44 39 32 25 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 40 45 49 51 49 46 44 43 42 40 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 8 12 16 18 25 21 23 25 24 31 39 43 49 48 49 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -6 -7 -3 -6 -1 -5 -3 0 0 0 4 0 8 5 6 SHEAR DIR 321 305 265 271 265 247 257 260 266 240 252 252 272 272 266 269 269 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.7 25.3 24.5 24.3 24.3 23.3 21.0 17.0 15.2 15.3 14.9 16.0 1.4 1.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 111 113 110 105 105 104 97 86 76 73 74 74 75 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 100 98 100 98 96 96 95 87 79 72 70 70 70 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -55.0 -55.6 -55.9 -56.6 -57.2 -57.1 -56.7 -56.6 -56.7 -56.4 -55.4 -54.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 49 54 56 56 59 62 69 74 71 63 60 55 53 49 50 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 4 4 6 7 9 13 10 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 3 21 29 15 9 0 -2 24 28 43 1 -35 -75 -43 -24 -12 -17 200 MB DIV 3 20 31 6 15 35 35 57 44 31 19 19 7 13 -17 0 -191 700-850 TADV 1 3 -2 0 3 3 4 -9 13 9 8 4 3 -8 -9 -33 -11 LAND (KM) 679 763 846 923 1018 1100 1072 979 984 1143 1413 1498 976 524 137 -240 -271 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.7 31.0 31.5 32.2 34.1 36.3 38.1 39.9 42.0 44.4 46.5 47.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.3 69.9 68.5 67.1 65.5 61.5 56.3 50.5 45.3 40.3 35.1 29.1 22.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 16 22 25 24 22 22 23 24 25 27 27 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -6. -11. -17. -25. -34. -43. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 5. 0. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 16. 20. 26. 21. 14. 9. 2. -5. -13. -18. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.5 71.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 07/04/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.37 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.11 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 11.6% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.8% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 07/04/20 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 07/04/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 35 37 42 46 50 56 51 44 39 32 25 17 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 34 39 43 47 53 48 41 36 29 22 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 34 38 42 48 43 36 31 24 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 31 35 41 36 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT