* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972020 07/04/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 38 40 45 49 55 58 53 47 38 28 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 38 40 45 49 55 58 53 47 38 28 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 34 36 38 40 43 47 51 56 58 55 51 48 45 42 39 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 10 11 15 21 23 19 23 18 27 45 59 60 54 49 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -7 -7 -7 0 -5 -4 -7 0 0 0 -1 1 8 9 11 SHEAR DIR 318 326 307 282 279 265 251 260 278 264 245 240 251 260 282 271 271 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.3 24.5 24.3 24.5 23.1 19.9 14.0 13.1 13.6 14.3 15.1 1.5 POT. INT. (KT) 120 118 114 112 112 110 106 105 106 97 84 73 72 73 74 74 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 103 100 98 98 99 97 97 96 88 78 70 69 70 71 71 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -55.4 -55.6 -56.4 -56.9 -57.2 -56.5 -56.3 -56.0 -55.4 -55.2 -54.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 48 53 57 57 60 64 68 71 71 67 63 59 57 53 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 7 9 12 14 13 12 13 13 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -7 4 17 11 6 -8 0 22 63 60 1 -35 -48 -48 -34 -70 200 MB DIV -24 4 22 24 6 32 26 23 33 39 49 34 25 -2 -29 -12 -143 700-850 TADV -2 2 4 0 1 11 -3 8 8 10 -9 -3 25 10 9 6 -20 LAND (KM) 623 698 765 836 890 1036 1104 1127 1048 1049 1168 1442 1186 563 95 6 -390 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.7 32.2 34.2 36.1 37.7 39.9 43.2 46.9 49.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.0 71.8 70.6 69.4 68.2 65.3 61.0 55.3 49.3 44.1 39.1 33.7 26.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 11 12 18 23 26 24 24 26 27 27 28 29 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 11. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. 0. -3. -7. -14. -24. -36. -46. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 2. 4. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 8. 10. 15. 19. 25. 28. 23. 17. 8. -2. -12. -18. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.0 73.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972020 INVEST 07/04/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.22 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 14.5% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 18.2% 18.0% 8.1% 1.0% 5.0% 1.4% 0.7% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 10.9% 9.7% 2.7% 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972020 INVEST 07/04/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972020 INVEST 07/04/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 38 38 40 45 49 55 58 53 47 38 28 18 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 34 36 41 45 51 54 49 43 34 24 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 29 31 36 40 46 49 44 38 29 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 27 31 37 40 35 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT