* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 10/25/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 29 32 38 38 33 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 29 27 27 29 30 26 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 23 26 29 30 32 30 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 24 29 35 49 52 61 65 69 67 51 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 2 3 13 6 2 1 6 4 5 6 0 SHEAR DIR 234 230 213 204 207 238 241 249 276 300 311 318 322 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 28.4 22.9 9.1 10.5 5.5 7.3 9.4 15.5 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 156 146 98 72 72 68 67 68 72 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 139 146 139 95 71 70 68 66 66 68 90 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -54.2 -54.9 -55.2 -57.0 -58.6 -58.5 -57.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 71 70 63 57 58 65 68 62 52 37 21 15 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 62 75 103 118 103 30 51 9 -94 -208 -185 -122 200 MB DIV 109 101 85 110 92 67 146 114 67 -27 -79 -85 -67 700-850 TADV 11 12 0 1 9 58 261 239 200 91 -22 -42 -34 LAND (KM) 280 295 263 305 193 -246 -868 -673 -311 14 47 364 682 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.9 25.1 26.4 27.9 32.6 39.2 44.9 48.4 49.2 47.1 43.1 39.7 LONG(DEG W) 94.7 94.9 94.7 93.9 92.6 89.8 85.9 79.8 72.2 64.8 58.9 57.7 57.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 17 21 33 37 34 28 23 22 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 34 36 30 23 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 14 CX,CY: -4/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 12. 14. 16. 18. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. -11. -25. -41. -57. -67. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 12. 15. 12. 9. 6. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 7. 13. 13. 8. -5. -20. -31. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.6 94.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 10/25/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.21 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.60 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 14.3% 9.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 5.2% 2.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 6.5% 4.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 10/25/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 10/25/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 29 27 27 29 30 26 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 27 25 25 27 28 24 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 20 20 22 23 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT