* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 10/24/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 31 35 35 32 29 25 19 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 31 31 28 27 28 24 18 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 24 22 18 24 26 28 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 14 15 20 32 28 26 36 37 42 41 50 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 0 -1 9 1 -2 1 0 -3 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 225 222 221 199 189 213 237 260 254 260 269 294 316 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 27.6 25.7 23.1 19.8 24.7 25.5 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 146 148 150 152 134 115 97 82 106 112 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 132 132 136 140 125 108 90 77 95 97 94 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -54.4 -55.4 -55.9 -56.1 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 6 1 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 73 72 73 68 53 43 42 43 45 48 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 29 61 73 87 79 65 41 -25 -24 -14 -84 -106 200 MB DIV 70 100 93 60 62 60 11 14 28 16 25 -21 -29 700-850 TADV 7 6 0 -2 -17 -1 0 38 22 20 2 22 22 LAND (KM) 230 197 202 245 291 436 156 -38 -250 -110 303 575 810 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.7 22.5 23.3 24.0 25.6 27.7 30.8 34.0 35.9 36.9 37.0 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 94.6 95.3 95.5 95.4 94.9 92.8 90.1 86.9 82.5 77.4 72.2 67.6 64.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 10 14 19 23 24 22 20 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 25 30 34 38 37 28 20 1 0 0 5 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 803 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -3. -9. -17. -26. -33. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 10. 10. 7. 4. 0. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.9 94.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 10/24/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 13.5% 9.5% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 9.7% 4.1% 1.9% 0.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 7.7% 4.5% 2.7% 0.2% 0.4% 2.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 10/24/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 10/24/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 29 31 31 28 27 28 24 18 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 27 29 29 26 25 26 22 16 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 23 25 25 22 21 22 18 DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 18 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT