* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 10/24/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 31 32 36 37 36 32 27 21 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 31 32 36 37 36 29 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 27 25 22 20 18 22 25 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 12 15 19 37 30 29 34 38 47 59 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -3 2 0 4 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 226 214 226 228 205 197 220 242 269 259 251 254 265 SST (C) 29.0 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.6 29.1 27.4 25.9 24.9 22.4 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 140 143 144 145 150 145 154 130 115 108 94 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 129 130 129 130 134 130 140 117 103 99 88 77 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -55.0 -55.8 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 9 10 6 2 1 0 1 1 3 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 78 75 74 74 75 66 52 43 40 39 42 42 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 4 26 54 58 46 25 11 -28 -27 -50 -54 2 200 MB DIV 36 58 77 73 49 59 28 3 0 20 32 34 41 700-850 TADV 0 4 7 2 0 -23 -7 2 13 15 6 22 6 LAND (KM) 167 153 153 141 182 286 427 336 124 29 -278 -197 137 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.5 21.3 22.0 22.6 23.9 24.8 26.1 28.0 30.2 32.6 35.5 38.5 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 95.2 95.7 95.9 95.8 95.0 93.1 91.2 89.1 86.9 84.1 79.3 73.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 7 7 9 10 13 14 15 21 27 29 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 28 32 35 37 35 24 16 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 859 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 27. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -6. -13. -21. -30. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 11. 12. 11. 7. 2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.9 94.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 10/24/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 17.0% 11.9% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 25.6% 11.9% 4.3% 2.0% 3.9% 1.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 14.5% 8.0% 4.1% 0.7% 1.3% 3.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 10/24/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 10/24/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 30 31 32 36 37 36 29 27 28 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 29 30 34 35 34 27 25 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 24 25 29 30 29 22 20 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 18 22 23 22 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT