* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 09/17/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 47 57 62 62 62 61 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 47 57 62 62 62 61 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 33 38 42 45 46 46 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 10 9 4 10 17 19 21 19 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 0 -2 -2 -3 -4 0 0 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 42 29 20 4 360 297 275 297 319 341 330 324 283 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.8 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 142 141 140 142 144 151 162 156 155 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 138 137 136 135 139 141 148 158 147 140 139 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 8 7 700-500 MB RH 53 51 51 48 48 45 45 45 49 54 64 63 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 12 10 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 39 29 25 21 16 17 14 9 1 -18 -36 -36 -41 200 MB DIV 23 6 14 19 24 7 10 12 3 -4 5 34 21 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 -6 0 -2 2 8 LAND (KM) 1305 1272 1255 1237 1221 1223 1239 1106 953 677 565 633 759 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.5 16.6 18.0 19.3 20.8 22.4 24.0 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 43.5 44.5 45.4 46.2 47.1 48.9 51.2 53.9 56.7 59.8 62.5 64.4 65.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 11 13 15 16 16 13 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 30 33 40 39 41 33 39 48 67 34 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 22. 32. 37. 37. 37. 36. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 43.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 09/17/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 17.7% 12.2% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 16.6% 13.0% 4.3% 1.1% 7.6% 12.6% 10.2% Bayesian: 0.9% 4.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 12.3% 1.5% Consensus: 3.6% 12.8% 9.3% 4.0% 0.4% 3.1% 13.1% 3.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 09/17/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 09/17/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 39 47 57 62 62 62 61 63 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 37 45 55 60 60 60 59 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 40 50 55 55 55 54 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 32 42 47 47 47 46 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT