* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 09/17/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 40 49 59 63 65 64 62 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 40 49 59 63 65 64 62 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 38 44 48 51 51 49 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 12 8 4 4 12 15 24 23 28 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -1 1 -2 -3 -4 -1 1 1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 45 38 37 36 29 29 263 285 303 335 344 345 331 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.8 29.6 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 141 142 141 140 140 142 144 151 163 156 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 140 138 137 136 134 136 140 141 148 157 146 142 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 10 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 55 56 54 53 52 49 49 50 48 50 53 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 12 12 13 12 12 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 41 37 23 20 22 34 25 25 6 -3 -21 -41 -30 200 MB DIV 17 26 7 20 31 25 42 11 29 -3 12 -8 -12 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -4 0 0 0 1 -7 -7 -4 -8 0 LAND (KM) 1329 1293 1264 1254 1241 1217 1208 1228 1091 941 681 495 481 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.5 15.3 16.4 17.8 19.1 20.4 21.3 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 42.3 43.2 44.1 44.9 45.6 47.0 48.8 51.2 53.9 56.8 59.6 62.2 64.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 9 8 8 12 14 15 16 14 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 27 28 30 31 39 40 38 33 38 53 66 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 15. 24. 34. 38. 40. 39. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 42.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 09/17/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 16.6% 11.5% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 9.6% 7.0% 2.3% 0.5% 3.6% 7.1% 11.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.9% 1.8% Consensus: 2.5% 9.3% 6.4% 3.2% 0.2% 1.4% 7.5% 4.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 09/17/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 09/17/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 40 49 59 63 65 64 62 62 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 38 47 57 61 63 62 60 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 34 43 53 57 59 58 56 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 26 35 45 49 51 50 48 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT