* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 09/16/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 31 36 47 58 65 68 70 66 67 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 31 36 47 58 65 68 70 66 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 36 43 50 54 55 54 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 10 12 11 3 2 3 7 11 24 25 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 -2 0 -3 -3 0 2 2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 56 56 53 47 42 30 352 257 277 286 314 323 342 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 29.1 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 135 138 140 137 140 140 142 142 146 155 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 129 130 133 135 130 135 135 140 139 143 151 160 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 58 60 60 57 58 57 55 56 57 56 60 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 11 10 11 10 11 12 14 14 16 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 36 36 50 46 45 50 51 30 32 4 -1 -10 -33 200 MB DIV 11 18 37 56 43 57 13 36 25 46 19 43 1 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 1 2 0 -3 -7 -6 -11 -10 LAND (KM) 1435 1454 1448 1430 1394 1365 1307 1244 1196 1145 980 812 530 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.6 16.7 17.6 18.6 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 40.4 40.7 41.2 41.8 42.6 43.9 45.4 47.2 49.7 52.3 55.2 58.0 60.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 7 8 11 13 14 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 20 26 31 25 27 37 36 29 39 43 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 806 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 6. 11. 22. 33. 40. 43. 45. 41. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 40.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 09/16/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 17.4% 12.3% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 5.4% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3% 3.1% 6.1% 18.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% Consensus: 2.1% 8.0% 5.6% 3.2% 0.1% 1.3% 6.7% 6.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 09/16/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 09/16/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 28 31 36 47 58 65 68 70 66 67 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 30 35 46 57 64 67 69 65 66 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 30 41 52 59 62 64 60 61 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 34 45 52 55 57 53 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT