* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 09/16/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 47 59 68 72 71 70 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 47 59 68 72 71 70 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 40 48 55 58 57 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 18 16 16 15 10 5 8 12 23 24 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -4 -4 1 2 5 2 SHEAR DIR 57 55 52 47 43 42 32 48 322 329 305 309 323 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.4 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 141 138 136 138 139 141 141 141 144 157 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 139 137 133 131 132 131 135 138 140 144 157 155 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 61 60 60 61 61 63 64 63 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 14 15 15 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 34 29 19 31 28 21 20 17 0 -16 -28 -27 -43 200 MB DIV 13 -6 -5 15 32 29 24 25 43 37 22 40 29 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 1 -2 -3 -8 -7 -8 LAND (KM) 1293 1279 1258 1242 1222 1208 1204 1183 1149 1155 1157 1023 788 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.2 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.9 15.1 16.6 18.1 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 40.9 41.3 41.8 42.3 42.8 43.8 44.6 45.7 47.2 49.5 52.1 55.2 58.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 7 10 14 16 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 25 24 24 26 30 34 48 33 31 42 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 816 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 22. 34. 43. 47. 46. 45. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 40.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 09/16/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 15.0% 10.4% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 8.0% 4.6% 1.6% 0.7% 3.6% 11.0% 35.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.7% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 1.8% 9.2% Consensus: 2.3% 9.5% 5.5% 2.9% 0.2% 1.4% 7.6% 14.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 09/16/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 09/16/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 37 47 59 68 72 71 70 70 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 35 45 57 66 70 69 68 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 41 53 62 66 65 64 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 33 45 54 58 57 56 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT