* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 09/16/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 47 60 67 72 73 73 72 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 47 60 67 72 73 73 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 44 50 55 56 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 18 21 16 20 15 13 10 12 16 25 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -6 -7 -3 -1 0 5 SHEAR DIR 60 48 43 47 44 40 46 22 354 320 292 297 305 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 147 143 140 139 138 142 144 142 141 144 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 148 144 139 135 133 132 135 139 139 140 143 156 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 60 62 61 60 59 60 59 58 60 65 68 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 13 14 16 17 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 31 32 28 23 30 21 14 20 6 -3 -19 -26 -33 200 MB DIV 28 22 15 23 38 16 20 4 24 29 63 18 52 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -2 -3 -3 1 0 0 -2 -3 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 1266 1244 1211 1194 1180 1158 1162 1160 1154 1146 1206 1153 1046 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.5 11.1 11.8 12.4 13.1 14.1 15.7 17.1 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 40.9 41.3 41.9 42.3 42.7 43.5 44.2 45.0 46.0 47.6 49.7 52.5 55.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 12 14 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 29 27 27 28 31 34 37 53 38 30 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 785 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 22. 35. 42. 47. 48. 48. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.2 40.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 09/16/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 16.1% 11.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 9.0% 5.3% 1.6% 0.6% 2.3% 5.9% 19.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.3% 3.1% Consensus: 2.5% 9.0% 5.7% 2.8% 0.2% 0.9% 5.7% 7.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 09/16/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 09/16/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 38 47 60 67 72 73 73 72 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 36 45 58 65 70 71 71 70 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 41 54 61 66 67 67 66 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 33 46 53 58 59 59 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT