* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 08/21/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 39 42 47 49 50 48 47 46 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 39 42 47 49 50 48 47 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 33 35 38 41 44 44 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 20 19 21 18 13 7 2 8 13 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -4 -5 -5 -5 -6 -4 1 2 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 247 247 255 248 258 266 277 275 135 171 212 236 237 SST (C) 27.2 26.8 25.7 25.8 24.2 26.3 25.0 26.8 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.0 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 114 115 102 119 106 121 125 124 125 124 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 108 99 100 90 102 91 101 102 103 104 103 93 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -55.3 -55.1 -54.6 -53.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 40 40 38 35 35 36 33 33 33 34 34 36 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -65 -57 -82 -95 -90 -79 -68 -59 -61 -70 -89 -102 -25 200 MB DIV 0 3 -21 -25 -10 -31 -31 -33 -26 -12 -4 0 16 700-850 TADV 0 -8 -2 -6 -18 -11 -18 -5 -5 -4 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 646 729 725 788 891 1199 1498 1724 1818 1803 1672 1510 1374 LAT (DEG N) 40.1 40.2 40.2 40.0 39.8 38.8 37.3 35.6 34.4 33.8 34.3 35.7 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 57.4 54.9 52.3 49.9 47.5 43.1 40.1 38.7 38.9 40.2 41.9 42.5 41.5 STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 19 18 18 16 12 8 6 7 7 9 13 HEAT CONTENT 18 7 0 0 0 1 0 2 6 3 4 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 20 CX,CY: 20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 17. 19. 20. 18. 17. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 40.1 57.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 08/21/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.79 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.40 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.32 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 10.1% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 2.9% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.3% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 08/21/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 08/21/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 37 39 42 47 49 50 48 47 46 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 36 39 44 46 47 45 44 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 32 35 40 42 43 41 40 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 27 32 34 35 33 32 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT