* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 08/20/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 35 37 40 44 48 51 53 50 51 51 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 35 37 40 44 48 51 53 50 51 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 34 36 39 42 45 47 48 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 20 19 18 20 17 11 6 4 9 10 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -7 -5 -4 -6 -5 -7 -3 0 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 240 250 252 255 252 260 262 264 247 199 196 217 247 SST (C) 24.5 26.8 26.8 25.6 25.8 24.9 24.9 26.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 104 125 125 113 115 107 106 115 124 124 124 125 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 91 108 108 99 100 94 91 97 102 102 103 103 101 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.3 -55.1 -54.3 -53.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 41 39 39 37 36 35 36 35 35 36 34 35 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -65 -69 -59 -88 -95 -94 -68 -60 -58 -60 -76 -93 -51 200 MB DIV -1 2 -3 -13 -10 -18 -28 -33 -29 -22 -22 -7 28 700-850 TADV 17 -4 -6 -3 -4 -20 -11 -13 -3 -4 0 2 -2 LAND (KM) 566 619 709 712 762 1015 1349 1627 1779 1811 1715 1576 1464 LAT (DEG N) 40.1 40.3 40.4 40.3 40.2 39.5 38.1 36.4 34.9 34.0 34.1 35.0 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 60.0 57.6 55.1 52.6 50.1 45.4 41.5 39.2 38.8 39.7 41.4 42.5 42.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 19 19 19 18 14 10 6 6 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 13 6 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 3 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 18 CX,CY: 18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 20. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 40.1 60.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 08/20/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.81 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.39 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 10.8% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 3.9% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.9% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 08/20/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 08/20/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 35 37 40 44 48 51 53 50 51 51 18HR AGO 30 29 32 33 35 38 42 46 49 51 48 49 49 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 32 36 40 43 45 42 43 43 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 29 33 36 38 35 36 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT