* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 08/20/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 43 46 49 50 49 47 47 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 43 46 49 50 49 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 34 35 37 40 43 45 47 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 20 22 22 21 20 19 16 12 9 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -5 -6 -4 -6 -4 -7 -3 -3 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 244 242 255 253 258 253 254 249 234 239 210 234 238 SST (C) 27.6 23.9 26.2 26.9 25.2 23.6 26.2 24.9 26.7 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 100 119 126 110 98 118 105 120 125 124 125 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 88 103 109 96 87 101 90 100 103 102 103 103 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.8 -54.7 -55.2 -55.0 -54.6 -53.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 48 42 40 40 40 37 38 35 35 36 38 35 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 3 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -62 -66 -55 -83 -83 -60 -51 -41 -40 -42 -56 -59 200 MB DIV 6 7 -8 -2 2 -11 -21 -41 -28 -36 -17 -21 5 700-850 TADV -4 17 -2 -9 -2 -16 -11 -15 -6 -3 -3 1 0 LAND (KM) 457 534 594 700 689 845 1156 1469 1695 1793 1779 1691 1563 LAT (DEG N) 40.0 40.3 40.4 40.5 40.5 40.1 39.1 37.5 35.8 34.5 33.9 34.0 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 62.6 60.4 58.0 55.4 52.8 47.9 43.4 40.3 38.9 39.2 40.5 42.1 43.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 19 20 19 18 16 12 8 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 29 0 1 8 0 0 1 0 1 6 3 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 19. 20. 19. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 40.0 62.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 08/20/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.37 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.09 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.40 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.54 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 8.4% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.9% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.8% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 08/20/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 08/20/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 41 43 46 49 50 49 47 47 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 39 41 44 47 48 47 45 45 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 36 39 42 43 42 40 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 28 31 34 35 34 32 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT