* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 08/20/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 45 49 53 55 55 57 58 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 45 49 53 55 55 57 58 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 35 37 40 44 47 50 54 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 15 17 17 14 13 11 11 9 6 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -5 -3 -6 -5 -3 -5 -6 -3 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 246 246 252 245 255 268 266 270 252 221 217 201 299 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.2 24.8 26.8 26.7 25.8 25.2 26.3 26.2 27.2 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 129 106 125 123 114 108 117 115 125 126 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 111 111 93 107 106 98 93 98 95 103 104 107 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.7 -54.7 -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 52 52 50 45 42 38 36 36 34 35 35 34 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -49 -39 -70 -66 -83 -84 -76 -61 -47 -44 -44 -43 200 MB DIV 15 2 8 9 -17 -3 -17 -14 -39 -38 -28 -11 -10 700-850 TADV 28 0 2 19 3 -3 -11 -4 -17 -5 -5 -4 1 LAND (KM) 426 451 485 587 669 778 886 1118 1390 1597 1686 1673 1590 LAT (DEG N) 39.1 39.5 39.8 39.9 39.8 39.7 39.4 38.7 37.3 35.7 34.4 33.9 34.1 LONG(DEG W) 66.7 64.6 62.4 60.0 57.6 53.0 48.7 44.8 42.0 40.8 41.4 42.7 44.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 18 18 18 17 16 15 11 8 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 15 0 11 7 0 0 1 0 4 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 19. 23. 25. 25. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 39.1 66.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 08/20/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.44 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 13.4% 10.0% 6.8% 6.7% 8.5% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.6% 4.0% 2.4% 2.2% 3.3% 3.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 08/20/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 08/20/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 41 45 49 53 55 55 57 58 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 39 43 47 51 53 53 55 56 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 38 42 46 48 48 50 51 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 30 34 38 40 40 42 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT