* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 08/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 43 48 54 57 58 58 59 58 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 43 48 54 57 58 58 59 58 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 41 45 49 53 54 55 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 11 11 11 10 10 12 18 15 12 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -5 -2 -5 -2 -5 -4 -3 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 211 247 243 247 228 244 226 225 215 225 211 164 203 SST (C) 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.6 26.5 26.5 26.9 26.1 25.8 26.8 26.6 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 128 130 134 121 121 125 116 113 122 118 124 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 109 111 115 104 104 107 99 95 101 97 101 103 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -54.3 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 55 51 51 48 43 39 35 36 36 37 37 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -63 -46 -42 -61 -60 -89 -85 -70 -66 -49 -57 -69 200 MB DIV 16 16 2 6 15 -16 -5 -10 2 -55 -31 -17 -20 700-850 TADV 15 24 0 2 18 0 4 -11 -7 -11 -4 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 387 440 473 524 626 783 831 952 1184 1406 1564 1605 1569 LAT (DEG N) 38.5 39.0 39.3 39.4 39.5 39.4 39.3 39.1 38.2 37.0 35.6 34.8 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 68.6 66.6 64.6 62.4 60.1 55.8 51.6 47.7 44.4 42.2 41.6 42.3 43.5 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 17 17 17 16 15 12 9 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 8 11 34 6 4 4 2 0 2 1 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 17 CX,CY: 16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 18. 24. 27. 28. 28. 29. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 38.5 68.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 08/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.46 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 225.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 14.4% 10.5% 6.8% 6.7% 8.9% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.6% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 1.5% 1.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.3% 4.3% 2.4% 2.3% 3.5% 4.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 08/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 08/19/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 43 48 54 57 58 58 59 58 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 41 46 52 55 56 56 57 56 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 36 41 47 50 51 51 52 51 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 33 39 42 43 43 44 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT