* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 08/19/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 46 51 53 55 57 58 58 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 46 51 53 55 57 58 58 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 36 39 42 45 48 52 57 61 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 13 13 14 13 13 11 8 11 5 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -5 -6 -5 -4 -5 -5 -5 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 198 229 258 253 258 254 261 259 241 228 193 170 179 SST (C) 27.5 26.7 27.1 27.3 27.7 26.2 26.6 26.7 25.5 26.5 27.0 27.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 123 128 130 135 118 122 123 110 119 123 125 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 105 108 111 115 101 104 104 94 99 102 103 107 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.6 -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 -54.6 -54.2 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 7 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 59 56 53 52 50 41 39 37 38 38 37 35 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -44 -58 -52 -43 -71 -81 -75 -68 -57 -60 -56 -68 200 MB DIV 7 16 19 0 3 -19 2 -25 -14 -37 -44 -27 -11 700-850 TADV 6 23 24 0 4 5 -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 330 338 382 445 471 640 767 828 1010 1242 1450 1548 1584 LAT (DEG N) 38.1 38.8 39.2 39.5 39.7 39.8 39.8 39.6 39.1 38.0 36.4 35.1 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 71.0 69.2 67.3 65.2 63.0 58.5 54.1 50.0 46.3 43.6 42.4 42.9 44.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 17 17 17 17 15 13 10 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 2 6 23 21 3 10 6 0 2 2 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 14 CX,CY: 12/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 21. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 38.1 71.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 08/19/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.47 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 16.4% 11.9% 7.9% 7.8% 9.4% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 5.0% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 2.7% 1.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.2% 4.9% 2.9% 2.6% 4.0% 4.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 08/19/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 08/19/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 38 42 46 51 53 55 57 58 58 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 39 43 48 50 52 54 55 55 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 38 43 45 47 49 50 50 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 30 35 37 39 41 42 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT