* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 08/19/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 35 40 46 51 50 49 49 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 35 40 46 51 50 49 49 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 40 43 44 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 7 11 13 9 7 8 10 14 18 17 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -5 0 1 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -4 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 215 233 199 220 242 252 225 244 241 262 273 299 304 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.2 26.6 27.1 27.4 27.3 25.6 25.3 23.9 25.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 127 128 121 127 130 129 112 110 99 110 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 109 107 108 103 107 109 109 96 95 85 92 97 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.9 -54.9 -55.6 -55.6 -55.4 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 7 9 8 5 6 5 4 3 3 4 6 700-500 MB RH 51 57 61 58 53 52 43 43 45 50 51 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 6 4 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -94 -76 -55 -58 -78 -65 -107 -113 -109 -130 -110 -103 -100 200 MB DIV -12 5 0 12 16 2 -14 9 -19 -12 -34 -47 -32 700-850 TADV 11 2 0 19 26 2 5 7 -3 14 -1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 117 196 268 318 364 491 578 668 700 724 951 1216 1376 LAT (DEG N) 36.6 37.3 38.0 38.5 38.8 39.1 39.3 39.7 40.4 40.7 40.1 38.6 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 74.5 73.3 71.9 70.2 68.4 64.9 61.4 57.9 54.0 49.6 45.6 43.1 42.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 14 14 14 14 13 15 16 17 14 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 5 8 1 11 19 13 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 13 CX,CY: 10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 15. 21. 26. 25. 24. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 36.6 74.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 08/19/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.49 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 15.8% 11.7% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 5.0% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2% 3.8% 2.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.9% 4.8% 3.0% 0.1% 1.3% 4.5% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 08/19/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 08/19/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 31 35 40 46 51 50 49 49 50 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 33 38 44 49 48 47 47 48 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 28 33 39 44 43 42 42 43 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 25 31 36 35 34 34 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT