* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 08/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 46 49 51 47 46 43 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 46 49 51 47 46 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 39 42 43 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 10 13 16 9 10 10 12 17 20 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 -4 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 206 210 226 203 220 227 207 215 212 230 255 289 342 SST (C) 26.4 27.5 27.4 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.2 27.0 24.2 22.9 23.4 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 119 131 130 127 128 129 132 128 126 102 94 96 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 111 109 107 107 108 110 106 107 89 83 83 79 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.7 -54.9 -55.4 -55.7 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 54 52 56 61 58 53 48 47 48 53 55 53 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -92 -81 -54 -57 -68 -89 -111 -115 -99 -90 -82 -111 200 MB DIV 21 -2 7 16 18 -4 16 -8 4 -21 17 -31 -37 700-850 TADV 9 7 4 0 20 1 15 0 11 13 9 21 8 LAND (KM) 25 138 207 292 331 454 533 637 657 592 691 978 1254 LAT (DEG N) 36.1 36.9 37.5 38.1 38.5 38.9 39.0 39.3 40.3 41.4 42.0 41.8 41.0 LONG(DEG W) 75.6 74.3 73.0 71.5 69.9 66.5 63.3 60.3 56.7 52.4 47.4 42.9 39.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 16 19 18 15 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 7 5 8 12 29 13 12 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 14 CX,CY: 11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. 1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 21. 24. 26. 22. 21. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 36.1 75.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 08/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.49 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 10.9% 8.2% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 5.5% 2.5% 1.4% 0.4% 5.2% 7.9% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.5% 3.6% 2.4% 0.1% 1.7% 5.6% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 08/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 08/18/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 46 49 51 47 46 43 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 34 38 43 46 48 44 43 40 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 33 38 41 43 39 38 35 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 25 30 33 35 31 30 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT