* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 08/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 34 39 42 46 46 44 40 38 V (KT) LAND 25 29 30 32 34 36 41 44 49 49 46 43 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 29 30 31 32 35 38 41 43 44 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 15 12 8 12 9 10 12 9 19 23 28 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 0 -5 0 -4 -2 0 0 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 216 211 209 208 188 200 190 209 219 228 262 283 322 SST (C) 28.8 26.5 27.8 28.1 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.6 25.1 24.2 23.4 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 119 134 139 140 136 132 125 121 109 102 97 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 102 112 115 117 112 108 103 102 94 90 85 88 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -55.1 -55.4 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 10 7 7 8 7 7 5 4 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 55 59 54 53 49 52 56 61 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 6 7 4 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -69 -60 -85 -89 -61 -83 -58 -95 -83 -106 -138 -115 -111 200 MB DIV 33 2 1 27 7 10 4 8 9 12 -16 -41 -61 700-850 TADV -4 7 6 0 1 17 0 2 7 -5 20 5 1 LAND (KM) -9 18 117 218 290 407 494 548 543 545 513 713 1022 LAT (DEG N) 35.0 35.8 36.4 36.9 37.4 38.1 38.4 38.7 39.7 41.1 42.1 41.7 40.3 LONG(DEG W) 76.9 75.7 74.5 73.3 72.0 69.1 66.5 64.0 61.4 57.5 52.5 47.5 44.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 12 11 10 10 14 18 19 17 14 HEAT CONTENT 29 1 5 15 27 15 20 13 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 13 CX,CY: 10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 17. 21. 21. 19. 15. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 35.0 76.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 08/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.55 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 14.7% 10.7% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 13.5% 7.7% 4.4% 1.3% 11.8% 14.1% 7.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 9.4% 6.1% 3.7% 0.4% 3.9% 8.6% 2.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 08/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 08/18/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 30 32 34 36 41 44 49 49 46 43 40 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 31 36 39 44 44 41 38 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 27 32 35 40 40 37 34 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 24 27 32 32 29 26 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT