* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 08/18/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 32 38 42 47 50 52 51 48 46 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 35 39 44 47 49 48 45 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 31 34 38 40 42 43 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 10 8 12 9 11 14 10 20 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 4 3 -3 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 270 289 235 220 247 200 182 173 191 203 224 273 285 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 27.2 28.0 28.8 28.4 27.9 26.9 24.8 24.3 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 155 155 127 137 149 142 134 124 106 103 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 129 129 106 114 122 115 109 104 92 91 90 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.9 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 7 10 10 7 10 8 8 5 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 52 52 56 56 53 59 53 51 46 50 51 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 7 7 6 8 6 5 4 4 3 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR -78 -110 -83 -56 -87 -69 -101 -54 -74 -59 -69 -95 -84 200 MB DIV -30 15 26 20 10 8 21 3 24 16 20 -3 -41 700-850 TADV 3 -2 -2 7 8 -1 15 5 1 9 -5 11 8 LAND (KM) -17 -18 -45 -35 -9 189 367 477 541 549 514 563 592 LAT (DEG N) 33.3 33.9 34.5 35.2 35.7 36.7 37.3 37.5 37.7 38.6 40.1 41.4 41.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.5 78.9 78.1 77.1 76.0 73.7 71.1 68.8 66.8 64.7 61.3 56.6 51.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 10 10 11 10 8 8 12 17 20 18 HEAT CONTENT 39 35 29 25 8 10 60 40 35 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 7. 13. 17. 22. 25. 27. 26. 23. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 33.3 79.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 08/18/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.65 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 17.2% 12.3% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 14.0% 9.1% 4.2% 1.0% 10.2% 13.0% 13.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 10.4% 7.1% 4.0% 0.3% 3.4% 8.9% 4.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 08/18/19 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 08/18/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 26 35 39 44 47 49 48 45 43 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 25 34 38 43 46 48 47 44 42 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 30 34 39 42 44 43 40 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 24 28 33 36 38 37 34 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT