* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 08/17/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 32 33 37 41 46 46 48 46 42 37 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 32 37 42 42 43 41 38 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 27 27 27 31 34 36 38 40 41 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 9 12 8 11 13 21 16 22 30 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -3 1 -2 0 -1 -2 1 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 345 254 268 209 210 195 171 170 177 197 212 240 253 SST (C) 29.7 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 26.7 27.9 28.4 27.5 27.1 26.4 22.8 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 156 156 153 152 121 136 142 130 126 120 94 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 129 130 128 126 101 113 116 106 104 102 83 92 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 -55.1 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 7 7 11 8 10 8 8 5 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 52 53 51 53 54 53 55 50 47 48 51 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 4 7 6 6 5 5 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -83 -113 -81 -58 -103 -93 -70 -71 -67 -85 -102 -92 200 MB DIV -6 -22 9 7 16 -6 30 2 26 20 24 9 10 700-850 TADV 0 2 -3 -1 8 -4 21 2 14 -8 0 9 -4 LAND (KM) -5 -1 -8 -32 -16 74 243 381 443 499 434 464 511 LAT (DEG N) 32.8 33.3 33.9 34.6 35.2 36.3 37.4 37.9 38.2 38.9 40.2 41.6 42.1 LONG(DEG W) 80.0 79.3 78.6 77.8 76.8 75.0 72.6 70.1 67.9 65.8 62.7 58.3 53.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 10 11 9 8 11 16 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 45 37 35 31 29 1 19 45 11 18 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 7. 8. 12. 16. 21. 21. 23. 21. 17. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.8 80.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 08/17/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -2.9 999.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 08/17/19 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 08/17/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 26 32 37 42 42 43 41 38 33 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 25 31 36 41 41 42 40 37 32 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 27 32 37 37 38 36 33 28 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 21 26 31 31 32 30 27 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT