* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 09/21/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 27 27 26 25 23 21 21 23 27 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 27 27 26 25 23 21 21 23 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 26 27 31 28 39 37 43 34 35 25 33 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -4 -5 -5 -8 -7 -3 -2 -1 -2 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 278 276 271 271 272 277 279 258 253 253 253 259 263 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 143 142 142 144 147 151 155 153 152 156 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 132 130 130 135 139 144 149 147 145 152 157 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 -54.9 -54.7 -55.0 -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 46 47 47 46 49 50 50 52 54 56 52 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -10 -14 -20 -11 -19 -10 -18 -38 -33 -31 -24 -18 200 MB DIV -1 4 10 -1 13 5 37 37 24 -2 4 -5 12 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 1 0 3 0 0 0 -7 LAND (KM) 817 831 839 837 848 852 820 770 733 715 510 263 56 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.6 14.4 15.2 16.2 16.9 17.3 17.4 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 52.5 52.9 53.1 53.3 53.3 53.7 54.4 55.5 57.1 58.9 61.0 63.4 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 1 1 4 6 8 9 10 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 20 20 20 21 24 27 32 35 50 38 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 31. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -20. -26. -28. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -7. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.9 52.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 09/21/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.08 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.69 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.65 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 6.8% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.5% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 09/21/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 09/21/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 29 28 27 27 26 25 23 21 21 23 27 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 26 26 25 24 22 20 20 22 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 24 23 22 20 18 18 20 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT