* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 09/21/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 20 21 23 23 21 18 17 20 24 V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 20 21 23 23 21 18 17 20 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 25 25 28 31 28 39 41 42 37 33 29 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -3 -2 -4 -6 -4 -9 -3 -2 0 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 276 282 276 272 276 280 288 265 261 255 260 254 268 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 141 141 142 141 145 147 153 155 154 156 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 134 130 129 131 131 136 140 148 151 150 154 161 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -55.2 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 47 48 47 48 47 52 52 53 54 55 55 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -7 -13 -16 -25 -19 -23 -19 -36 -37 -42 -29 -19 200 MB DIV -4 0 -1 7 -4 -8 22 6 25 23 -2 -8 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 2 2 -1 1 -3 LAND (KM) 787 806 813 811 820 841 866 825 737 678 609 339 102 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.7 14.5 15.3 16.1 16.7 17.0 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 52.0 52.5 52.7 52.8 52.9 53.0 53.6 54.4 56.0 57.9 60.2 62.8 65.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 2 1 1 2 5 7 10 11 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 29 24 23 22 21 21 20 24 28 30 42 38 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 33. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -17. -24. -29. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -5. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 52.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 09/21/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.10 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.72 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.70 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 7.1% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.7% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 09/21/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 09/21/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 22 21 20 21 23 23 21 18 17 20 24 18HR AGO 25 24 22 21 20 21 23 23 21 18 17 20 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 19 20 22 22 20 17 16 19 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT