* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 09/21/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 31 31 31 31 30 28 25 23 25 28 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 31 31 31 31 30 28 25 23 25 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 31 29 27 24 20 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 24 22 22 24 25 32 31 41 37 38 26 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -3 -1 -3 -4 -4 -2 0 0 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 271 282 284 274 271 274 274 271 259 255 250 255 256 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 141 140 141 140 142 145 150 154 156 154 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 136 131 129 130 129 134 138 145 151 153 151 158 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 49 48 47 47 49 52 54 55 55 54 57 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -12 -8 -15 -18 -20 -22 -13 -23 -41 -50 -43 -31 200 MB DIV -6 -2 -5 -6 8 17 12 32 28 12 11 8 -13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 1 1 4 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 762 773 787 784 782 793 822 866 779 692 645 471 197 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.7 14.5 15.5 16.3 16.9 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 51.5 52.1 52.4 52.5 52.6 52.6 52.8 53.6 54.9 56.8 59.1 61.5 64.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 2 1 0 1 4 6 9 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 30 26 22 21 20 20 18 15 20 23 32 45 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 23. 27. 31. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -19. -24. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -5. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.1 51.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 09/21/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.67 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 11.2% 8.2% 6.6% 4.6% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.4% 3.0% 1.6% 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.9% 3.7% 2.7% 1.6% 2.7% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 09/21/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 09/21/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 31 31 31 31 30 28 25 23 25 28 18HR AGO 30 29 30 29 29 29 29 28 26 23 21 23 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 25 25 24 22 19 17 19 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT